The best residential resale market reports are the ones that are the most boring. Reports in which sales, prices, inventory and the economy move as was anticipated, slowly but positively. A boring environment is not one in which an unanticipated war between the United States, Israel and Iran erupts, a war that engulfs the Middle-East, and sees oil prices increase dramatically overnight. That’s what is happening at the end of February.
Real Estate markets were beginning to find some level of certainty as the month of February was coming to an end. Statistics Canada produced an annual report indicating that Canada’s 2025 gross domestic product came in at 1.7 percent. Although low, it was not as low as anticipated. It appeared that Canada’s economy had survived, relatively unscathed, the tariff chaos, the decline in immigration, the plethora of mortgage renewals, and numerous other local and global economic crises, and it signified that a level of consumer certainty was returning.
That certainty was tenuous and unfortunately, it is now waning. This prevailing uncertainty manifested itself in February in historically low sales, longer days on market, and, perplexingly, fewer properties coming to market.
Reported sales for the month of February have continued to decline since they hit a peak in 2021. The decline is even more precipitous when compared to the historical performance of sales in the month of February over the last few years. In the real estate community, February has been viewed as the beginning of the “spring market”. It would appear that the spring market will be delayed this year.
February’s reported sales were the lowest for that month in over a decade. Of particular note is the comparison to February’s reported sales in 2020. It was the month preceding the Covid-19 pandemic. At that time the Toronto and Region resale market was full of confidence and still relatively affordable. The average sale price was $910,290. The resale market’s trajectory was positive. A massive disruption began the very next month when the world went into lockdown. The resale market, as is evident from February’s data, is still recalibrating.
New listings coming to market in February are also an indication of this recalibration. In February, only 10,705 new properties came to market – at least 30 percent of these new listings were properties previously listed that did not sell. Last February 13,004 properties came to market, almost 18 percent more than this February. This is a clear indication that sellers are uncomfortable with the current market and are postponing their selling plans. As February came to an end and March began, there were 19,314 properties on the Toronto and Region market available to buyers, 2.4 percent fewer than the 19,791 available last year.
Fewer sales and fewer listings. What a housing analyst has called an inventory paradox.
The average sale price declined to $1,008,968 in February, approximately 7 percent less than the average sale price of $1,086,586 achieved last year. This decline was primarily driven by the decline in the average sale price of condominium apartments and reported sales in the 905 Region. Condominium apartment average sale prices declined by almost 9 percent. In the 905 Region average sale prices (for all properties reported sold) declined by almost 9 percent compared to a 7 percent decline in the City of Toronto. Sales in the 905 Region accounted for almost 65 percent of all reported sales for the month of February.
It is not surprising that during this period of uncertainty, properties took much longer to sell than last year. In February, all properties (on average) took 36 days to sell, a 33 percent increase compared to the 27 days it took last year. In February 2020, all properties sold in 17 days.
Semi-detached properties in the City of Toronto continued to be the most sought-after housing type. All semi-detached properties sold in only 20 days, and almost 45 percent faster than the overall market. In Toronto’s eastern districts, all semi-detached properties sold in only 15 days and for an eye-popping 110 percent of their asking price, the most active micro-market in the Toronto and Region marketplace. The average sale price for semi-detached properties in the eastern districts was $1,184,193. Unfortunately, there were only 67 reported sales. In two districts (E06 and E10) there were no reported sales, no doubt due to the fact that as of the date of preparing this Report, there were only 2 semi- detached properties listed for sale in E06 and only 5 in E10.
These numbers speak to two aspects of the current resale market. There are clearly buyers in the market, particularly for semi-detached properties, but sellers remain reluctant to put their properties on the market. At the peak of the resale market in February 2021, all semi-detached properties in Toronto’s eastern districts sold in only 6 days, and for 118 percent of their asking price. Not dramatically different from what occurred in February 2026.
As we move into March, buyers and sellers will have to make further adjustments as the economic uncertainty continues, primarily driven by global issues and their impact on the economy. The Middle East conflict initiated by the United States and Israel has created another uncertainty and, unfortunately, will delay the market’s recalibration, which is struggling to come to fruition. March’s results will very likely resemble January and February’s lacklustre numbers. Buyers and sellers are engaged in a strategic withdrawal, waiting for certainty. For the strategic withdrawal to come to an end, buyers must feel comfortable that prices have stabilized and for sellers, that conditions have sufficiently improved to venture back into the market.
