We are only happy when we forecast something that actually comes to pass, AND it is positive. The majority of real estate analysts and industry pundits had no problem forecasting what was likely to be revealed about the Toronto and Region residential resale market in January, and sadly, they got it right. But no one is happy.
The Toronto and Region resale data (provided by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board) speaks to the weakest start for any January in twenty years. Every category of record keeping produced negative results: sales, inventory, average sale prices, and the number of days homes remained on the market before they were reported sold. A deeper dive into the data indicates that some sectors of the Toronto and Region resale market are much more positive than others, which ultimately speaks to the pent-up demand that is being constrained by so many local and geo-political factors.
Only 3,082 homes traded hands in the greater Toronto Region. The slowest start in decades. On a per capita basis the number is even lower, given that twenty years ago the area’s population was approximately half its current size. A near 20 percent decline compared to January 2025, already one of the weakest January’s in recent record, is quite concerning. Hopefully these results are not a sign of further market deterioration but a reaction to very cold, snowy conditions locally, while consumers continue to adjust to a new chaotic, world order.
Interestingly even though the number of new listings that came to market declined by over 13 percent compared to last January, entering February inventory levels were up by over 8 percent. At the beginning of February almost 18,000 homes are available to buyers. The increase in inventory was directly related to January’s declining sales. Basically, sales fell faster than new listings; and as a result, inventory levels are higher even though fewer new listings came to market this January compared to last year.
Fewer listings coming to market is no doubt a reflection of sellers’ lack of market confidence. With prices declining and sale cycles approaching two months, it would appear only those sellers that are pressed to come to market are doing so. January’s average sale price may have also influenced those reluctant sellers.
In January the average sale price for all properties reported sold, including condominium apartments, came in at $973,289, 6.5 percent lower than last year, and the first time it has fallen below $1 million since before the Covid pandemic market. Taken alone, January’s average sale price is very misleading. In the City of Toronto, more than half of all reported sales – there were 1,067 in total – were condominium apartments. The average sale price generated by the 568 condominium apartments reported sold was only $631,932. The average sale price for all ground level properties sold in the City of Toronto came in at almost $1,200,000, including less expensive townhouses that sold at an average sale price of $876,585.
Average sale prices generated in the 905 Region were substantially less than City of Toronto. The average sale price for all properties sold was almost 30 percent lower in the 905 Region compared to Toronto, and that does not take into account the heavy weighting of condominium apartments in Toronto. The decline in the average sale price below $1 million, and particularly in the City of Toronto, is primarily condominium apartment sales driven.
It is no surprise that properties took longer to sell in January than they have in years. Days on market have been increasing regularly since the peak of the Toronto and Region resale market in the first quarter of 2022. The increase this January compared to last year was one of the largest, pushing days on market over 40, a number not seen since January 2009. In January 2010 days on market dropped to 28. The length of time properties spent on the market was not universal but varied by housing type and location. It is not surprising that condominium apartments languished, on average, for more than 50 days. Semi-detached properties in the 905 Region sold in 37 days and in only 34 days in the City of Toronto. In Toronto’s eastern trading areas all semi-detached properties sold (on average) in just 21 days, 53 percent faster than the overall days on market, and even more astonishingly, for 109 percent, yes 109 percent, of their asking price. Unfortunately, there were only 30 reported sales of semi-detached properties in all of Toronto’s eastern districts.
The most punishing aspects of the Toronto and Region resale market all came to play in January. Uncertainty has been a market factor since the Trump administration took office in early 2025. Affordability, although it has improved, remains a barrier to homebuying, even with the average sale price declining over 8 percent in January. Lastly, employment uncertainty is top of mind. Statistics Canada reported that in January 25,000 jobs had been lost.
There is no doubt that confidence will return at some point in 2026. If you are a buyer with capital, at this point in time you have time and leverage and therefore the best market opportunity in decades. As confidence returns, and buyers sense the change, they will begin to move before the market opportunity evaporates, as it will. Unfortunately, there are no concrete indicators as to when that will happen. That is the forecast the market is very impatiently waiting for.